Estimated mortality due to HIV/AIDS is the number of adults and children that have died in a specific year due to HIV/AIDS-related causes based in the modeling of HIV surveillance data using standard and appropriate tools.
The mortality rates of adults (aged more than 15 years) and of children (aged less than 5 years) are leading indicators of the level of impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of the impact of interventions, particularly the scaling-up of treatment and prevention of mother-to-child transmission in countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
Number of deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS-related causes in a given time period
For adults (aged more than 15 years): Total number of population (per 100 000 people)
For children (aged less than 5 years): Total number of population (per 1000 life births)
Numerator / Denominator
Empirical data from different HIV surveillance sources are consolidated to obtain estimates of the level and trend in adults and children mortality by using standard methods and tools for HIV estimates appropriate to the level of HIV epidemic. However, to obtain the best possible estimates, judgment needs to be made on data quality and how representative it is of the population. UNAIDS/WHO produce country specific estimates every two years (i.e., estimates of under-five HIV-related deaths and adult HIV-related deaths are available from national estimates and projections, using the Spectrum computer package).
Disaggregation by sex and age (below 5 years, 15 years and older).
Even though countries are increasingly collecting information on adult and child mortality, the reporting systems in many countries are weak and there is underreporting due in part to stigma and lack of diagnosis. High quality and complete civil registration systems and high quality survey or census data are crucial. WHO estimates that there is substantial variation in data quality and consistency across countries in the level of underestimation within civil registration systems.
Data source: Vital registration where possible, calculated from HIV surveillance data derived from sentinel surveillance and or household surveys.
Age group: (greater than) 15 years
Gender: Male, Female
Estimated rate of adults (15 years and older) dying of HIV/AIDS. WHO Statistical Information System. Available at: http://www.who.int/entity/whosis/whostat2006MortalityRateHIVAIDS.pdf